AI Delivers “Zero Financial Payoff” for Most Companies, Says Apollo’s Chief Economist

Companies are spending staggering sums on artificial intelligence, but one of Wall Street’s best-known economists says most of them have nothing to show for it yet. Torsten Slok, chief economist at private equity giant Apollo Global Management, argues that AI has delivered “zero financial payoff” to corporate America outside the tech sector. His note has reignited debate about AI return on investment and whether talk of an AI bubble is justified. Here is what Slok found, the reasons he gives, and what supporters of AI say in response.

What Slok Found

Slok published his findings in Apollo’s Daily Spark note on 24 October 2026, as TechCrunch reported. He highlighted what he calls the S&P 493, which represents the S&P 500 excluding seven major tech companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

For those seven, revenue per worker and profit margins are rising. For the other 493 companies, both appear to be flat, with no evidence that AI is improving productivity, according to Yahoo Finance. In Slok’s view, the payoff from AI so far has stayed inside the companies selling it.

Why AI Spending Is So Concentrated

Slok’s data also show that AI spending itself is extremely uneven. According to the note, the top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of spending on running AI models, 99% of spending on specialist AI cloud services, and more than 95% of spending tied to OpenAI and Anthropic. Among the very biggest AI spenders, most are venture-backed technology companies rather than traditional businesses.

He argues that as long as advanced AI and token spending remain confined to a small part of the economy, the wider economic effects will stay limited. He concludes that the future of AI will be shaped by the S&P 493 rather than the major tech giants.

Judgement versus calculation

Slok is also sceptical that ordinary companies will simply catch up. He argues that business success depends heavily on judgement, and that AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which affect reputation, revenue and profit.

The Case for Patience

Not everyone agrees with that reading. Supporters of AI make several counter-arguments:

• Adoption takes time. Past technologies, from electricity to personal computers, took years before productivity gains showed up in national statistics.
• Early use cases are small. Many companies are still testing AI in limited areas, and benefits may grow as they scale.
• Cost savings are coming. Some firms are already restructuring around AI. Barclays, for example, has announced 5,000 job cuts linked to efficiency gains, as our report on Barclays and AI explains.
• Measurement is hard. Benefits like faster service or better decisions may not appear immediately in margins.

The truth may sit between the two views: AI could deliver value over time, but not as quickly or evenly as the hype suggests.

Why It Matters

The debate has real consequences. Tech companies are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure, and markets have become sensitive to signs that the payoff may be slow. Investors recently pushed tech shares lower over AI spending fears, and questions about who captures AI’s value also shape debates about jobs and wealth, as our explainer on the US$300 billion AI giveaway explores. This is general information, not investment advice.

For businesses, the practical lesson is to focus AI projects on measurable outcomes, such as time saved, errors reduced or sales increased, rather than adopting AI for its own sake. Our how to measure AI ROI for small businesses guide covers the basics.

The Real Test Is Still Ahead

Slok’s note is a sharp reminder that spending on AI is not the same as profiting from it. The coming quarters will show whether ordinary companies can turn AI into real gains. For now, the smartest approach is to judge AI by measurable results, not by the size of the investment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the S&P 493?

It is Slok’s term for the S&P 500 excluding seven tech giants: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

Is AI making companies more productive?

According to Slok’s analysis, not yet for most large companies outside tech. Other economists expect gains to appear over time.

Does this mean AI is a bubble?

Not necessarily. Slok’s note shows the payoff has not spread widely yet, but it does not predict a crash.

Who is benefiting from AI now?

According to Slok, mainly the large tech companies building and selling AI.